Trading at $48,747 with a 1.1% profit in the past day, Bitcoin remains rangebound. The first crypto by market cap has been unable to break from the $45,500 to $49,500 channel in the last 7-days, but a combination of factors could increase volatility soon.
BTC moving sideways in the 4-hour chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview
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NewsBTC has been reporting on the possibility of a short squeeze for Bitcoin. The recent price action was most likely the result of the post-crash as the market needed time to form a range, and institutions de-risked their positions.
Large players are now potentially sitting in big piles of cash and looking to front-run Bitcoin’s next trend. This moved seems likely to come at the end of December due to the massive number of options that will expire right before the start of 2022.
Investment firm QCP Capital is one of the defenders of the short squeeze thesis for BTC. During the past weeks, the firm has only seen their conviction on this theory strengthen as market participants continue to trade Bitcoin’s current channel.
Due to the increase in options selling, the reduction of liquidity during the holidays, and the complacency in the market, QCP Capital said:
We maintain our view that there will be a squeeze (likely to the topside) as liquidity thins out into the holidays and into 2022. If this happens, owning wings (far strikes options) would be very profitable.
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Other experts agree with QCP Capital’s thesis, such as the CEO and CIO at Three Arrows Capital Zhu Su. Admitting that he has “not owned this much” Bitcoin since Q4, 2020, before the cryptocurrency rally into $60,000, Su claimed “conditions for gamma squeeze are potent”.
When asked what the potential targets for Bitcoin in the next months and a short squeeze scenario are, and whether BTC’s price will be able to replicate last year 3x rally from $20,000 to $60,000, Zhu Su replied:
3x is harder given current mcaps. I think 45 to 90 is pretty doable next few weeks and then opens up 135 in q1-q2.
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If volatility break in favor of the bulls in the days after Christmas as a result of a Santa Rally, as our Editorial Director Tony Spilotro wrote, traders could be looking at “an indicator for what may happen in the coming year”. Thus, why the next day will be decisive for BTC.